The global demand for UPR decreased by 2.5% in Q3 2022 as compared to Q3 2021. The UPR demand declined due to declined demand from end use industries, like construction, RV, and marine, which are performing very poorly, from a YoY perspective. Housing starts have declined due to increasing interest rates and the transportation industry remained steady, but distribution remained down based on inventory rebalancing. The UPR price increased by 3.9% in Q3 2022 as compared to Q3 2021 due to increased fuel expenses, supply chain issue, raw material cost, and freight cost.
In Q4 2022, the global demand for UPR is forecast to decrease by 1.5% as compared to Q4 2021 because of the softening demand due to low production activities with the start of holiday season. The risk of economic slowdown and tightening financial condition will also affect the UPR demand further. Globally, UPR price is forecast to decrease by 7.2% in Q4 2022 as compared to Q4 2021 due to softening demand. The figure below depicts the changes in demand and price of UPR over the past five quarters. The data also provides forecast for Q4 of 2022 as shown below.
Figure: Changes in the Global UPR Shipment and Price Trends
In Q3 2022, the North American UPR market declined as compared to Q3 2021, and it is expected to decline in Q4 2022 as well. UPR demand slowed mainly due to relaxing demand from RV, busses, trucks, housing related products, marine etc. North America, light vehicle sales declined by 1.0% in Q3 2022 as compared to Q3 2021. Privately owned housing starts in the US declined by 6.5% in Q3 2022 as compared to Q3 2021. The North American UPR market is expected to decrease in Q4 2022 as compared to Q4 2021 due to the rising inflation rates, economic slowdown, and tightening financial conditions.
In Q3 2022, the demand for UPR in Europe decreased as compared to Q3 2021and it is expected to decline further in Q4 2022 as well. UPR demand declined due to the Russia–Ukraine war, which created the challenges, such as supply chain disruption and labor shortages. Another reason for the UPR demand decline is due to poor demand from end use markets, such as automotive and construction. Germany registered 0.03 million units of privately owned housing starts in Q3 2022, which is 5.3% decreases as compared to Q3 2021. In Q3 2022, the UPR price increased in this region due to supply chain issue, high shipment cost, and fuel cost.
In Asia, the UPR demand decreased in Q3 2022 as compared to Q3 2021 due to ongoing war in Ukraine and US-China trade tension and disrupted supply chain issue, which affected the UPR demand in this region. In Q4 2022, the UPR demand is expected to decline due to decrease demand from major end use industries, including marine, wind, construction, and others. In Q3 2022, UPR price increased as compared to Q3 2021 due to increased prices of freight, raw materials, and crude oil.
The price and demand analysis on above is published monthly for various regions. Lucintel analysts collect supply, demand and price data from various suppliers and consumers on a monthly basis and also analyzes news on supply and demand issues, production, and price trends. This allows Lucintel to publish unbiased assessments on price and demand movements to help you make confident business decisions on your negotiation or business issues.
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