The global production for steel increased by 6.9% in Q2 2022 as compared to Q1 2022 but declined by 4.1% from Q2 2021. Global steel production grew in Q2 2022 due to an increase in steel production in APAC. APAC contributes more than 70% of the global steel production. China, the world’s largest steel making nation, produced 280 Mt of crude steel in Q2 2022, an increase of 14% as compared to Q1 2022. The rising output came after mills in northern China finished production cuts the government ordered in mid-March. Globally, the price of steel decreased by 7.3% in Q2 2022 as compared to Q1 2022.
In Q3 2022, the global demand for steel is expected to decline by 3.8% from Q2 2022. The slowdown is triggered by falling exports due to fear of a global recession. The high inflation continues to affect economies worldwide; the global steel market is feeling the effects. The price of steel is forecast to decrease by 4.6% in Q3 2022 vs. Q2 2022 due to weak demand amid oversupplies because of the imposition of export duty. The figure below depicts the change in demand and change in the price of steel over the past five quarters. Data also provides forecast for Q3 of 2022 as below.
Source: World Steel Association, Lucintel
Figure: Global Quarterly Steel Production and Price Trends
In North America, steel production witnessed a growth of 1.4% in Q2 2022 as compared to Q1 2022. Although, housing starts in the US declined by 4.2% during Q2 2022 from Q1 2022, but steel production increased in Q2 2022 due to increased demand from end use industries, such as automotive; the automotive industry accounts for about 30% of the US steel demand. In Q3 2022, steel demand is expected to decline as it is also suffering from slowdown in manufacturing.
In terms of steel production in the European region, it increased by 2.1% in Q2 2022 as compared to Q1 2022. The increase was majorly due to an increase in demand in various end use industries, including construction and industrial applications. France registered 0.03 million units of privately owned housing starts in Q2 2022, this is 1.1% increases as compared to Q1 2022. The European steel demand is expected to decline in Q3 2022 due the halt in production by steel plants. At the end of July 2022, nine steel plants in Europe fully or partially paused steel production. In terms of price, the European region registered a decrease in price of crude steel during Q2 2022 as compared to Q1 2022 due to high stock and low order intake.
In Q2 2022, the production of crude steel in the Asian region increased by 10.2% as compared to Q1 2022. Countries like China, India, and Japan produced around 334 million metric tons of crude steel during Q2 2022, an increase by 11% from the Q1 of 2022. The demand for steel is expected to decrease further in Q3 2022 due to the growing concern for global recession and soaring inflation. Another main reason for decreased demand for steel in Q3 2022 is that the housing market enters an escalating downturn due to a liquidity crunch facing developers and slumping sales and investment.
In ROW, steel production decreased by 8.1% in Q2 2022 as compared to Q1 2022, and it is expected to decrease in Q3 2022 as well. The steel demand decreased in ROW due to weakened economy, high inflation, and elevated interest rates.
The price and demand analysis on above is published monthly for various regions. Lucintel analysts collect supply, demand and price data from various suppliers and consumers on a monthly basis and also analyzes news on supply and demand issues, production, and price trends. This allows Lucintel to publish unbiased assessments on price and demand movements to help you make confident business decisions on your negotiation or business issues.
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