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Global demand for aluminum was declined by 0.6% in Q1 2021 as compared to Q4 2020, while it grew by 3.5% when compared to Q1 2020. This growth in demand is due to the recovery of downstream operation and production activities in end use industries. The pessimistic sentiment towards the macro economy had eased from Q3 2020, and recovery in metal prices was registered. Aluminum prices on average increased about 9% in Q1 2021 when compared to Q4 2020. The figure below depicts the change in demand and the price of aluminum in the past five quarters.




Source: World Aluminium Institute, Lucintel


Figure 1: Global Quarterly Aluminum Shipment and Price Trends

North America

North American aluminum production declined by 1.3% in Q1 2021, as compared to Q4 2020 and the demand for aluminum has reached at same level when compared to Q1 2020. Automotive and Construction account for ~35% of the US aluminum consumption; a marginal decline in demand for aluminum is expected due to decline end use markets such as transportation, construction, and industrial production. 

Europe

European aluminum production declined by ~1% in Q1 2021, when compared to both Q4 and Q1 of 2020. Demand for aluminum was also affected by the resurgence wave of COVID-19 pandemic in the European region which affected the end use industries such as light vehicle sales declined by ~11.6% in Q1 2021 compared to Q4 2020.

APAC

The Asian aluminum market declined by 0.2% in Q1 2021, as compared to Q4 2020, However, it grew by 6% in Q1 2021, as compared to Q1 2020. Demand in China improved significantly in Q1 2021. Rising freight costs, and tight scrap supplies fueled the rally in the aluminum market. China is the world’s largest aluminum producer; the production of aluminum in China grew by 6.3% in Q1 2021 as compared to Q1 2020, while production grew at a lower rate in other Asian countries during the same period. Prices have also increased considerably for aluminum and associated products in Q1 2021 and Q4 2020 due to the growth of various end use industries like transportation, construction, and industrial production.

 

The price and demand analysis on above is published monthly for various regions. Lucintel analysts collect supply, demand and price data from various suppliers and consumers on a monthly basis and also analyzes news on supply and demand issues, production, and price trends. This allows Lucintel to publish unbiased assessments on price and demand movements to help you make confident business decisions on your negotiation or business issues.

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